Phalodi Satta Bazar: Even Rajasthan’s Phalodi Satta Bazaar failed to predict it right in Lok Sabha elections
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Proving most exit polls wrong and demonstrating that even the most reliable predictors can sometimes falter, these Lok Sabha elections have shown their dynamic nature.Rajasthan‘s renowned Phalodi Satta Bazar, often a reliable predictor of election outcomes, missed the mark this time as the BJP secured fewer seats than anticipated both in the state and across the country, TOI reported.
The betting market offered 1:1 odds for the BJP to secure between 303 and 306 seats, until late Monday night, on the eve of vote counting, implying a bet of Rs 1 would yield a profit of Rs 1.
Likewise, with the same odds, the market had predicted Congress would win 61 to 63 seats.
- All
- Uttar Pradesh
- Maharashtra
- Tamil Nadu
- West Bengal
- Bihar
- Karnataka
- Andhra Pradesh
- Telangana
- Kerala
- Madhya Pradesh
- Rajasthan
- Delhi
- Other States
The satta (betting) market, known for its accurate forecasts in elections, cricket matches, and weather, failed to foresee the underperformance of the BJP.The market predicted that in Rajasthan the BJP will get a maximum of 20 and a minimum of 19 seats, while Congress was expected to win maximum of 6 seats. The predictions did not prove right as the saffron party secured only 14 seats, falling 5 seats short and the Congress gained 5 seats.”Until the last minute, the market showed no signs BJP would win fewer than 300 seats. A margin of 7-8 seats in a poll is significant,” a punter closely following the market told TOI.
Further, a bookie explained that the market relies on sources for political information, with individuals positioned in major political centres and the rates are set basis these inputs, poised to fluctuate accordingly.
When the betting market opened two months before the LS election, the predicted number of seats for BJP had decreased considerably. In mid-April, bookies expected BJP to win a maximum of 325 seats and a minimum of 322, and they were accepting bets accordingly.
The bookie told TOI, “This doesn’t mean that all punters lost. Some placed bets on BJP, while others on Congress. The market only provides rates based on trends; it does not influence any punter. People can bet however they feel.”
(With TOI inputs)
